Factors Associated with Dropout and Graduation Among Students at a Public University in Cúcuta, Colombia, Using Competing Risks Models.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15649/2346075X.5553Keywords:
survival analysis, dropout, graduation, higher education, competing riskAbstract
Introduction. University dropout has social and economic implications. Analyzing dropout and graduation jointly facilitates the understanding of academic trajectories. Objective. To identify demographic and academic factors associated with dropout and graduation at a public university in Cúcuta, Colombia. Materials and Methods. A historical cohort of 3,120 students enrolled in 2011-1 and 2011-2 was followed for fourteen academic periods. A discrete-time competing risks model was applied to estimate hazard and cumulative hazard functions and relative risk ratios (RRRs) using multinomial logistic regression, with a significance level of 0.05. Results. Overall, 38.4% graduated, 52.7% dropped out, and 8.9% experienced academic delay. The probability of graduation in the tenth academic period was 0.297. Male sex was associated with a higher relative risk of dropout (RRR = 1.366; 95% CI: 1.206–1.546) and a lower relative risk of graduation (RRR = 0.844; 95% CI: 0.722–0.986). Evening enrollment was associated with a higher relative risk of dropout (RRR = 2.034; 95% CI: 1.652–2.505) and a lower relative risk of graduation (RRR = 0.640). Passing fewer than 100% of enrolled credits was associated with a higher relative risk of dropout (RRR = 1.820) and a lower relative risk of graduation (RRR = 0.027). School type and grade point average were associated only with dropout, whereas admission semester was associated only with graduation. Conclusions. The model identified factors associated with both outcomes that may inform institutional student retention strategies.
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