Signaling theory vis a vis bankruptcy prediction model in islamic bank industry in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15649/2346030X.3788Palabras clave:
bankruptcy prediction, sharia bank, zmijewski model, grover model, altman z-score model modified, signal theoryResumen
This study aims to analyze the difference in the results of bankruptcy predictions in Islamic banking in Indonesia with the research period of 2018-2022. This study uses a quantitative approach, with a sample number of 11 Islamic banking companies. The bankruptcy prediction results compared in this study include Zmijewski, Grover, and Altman Z-Score Modified. Furthermore, the results of this study show that the three calculation models have differences in predicting the bankruptcy of Islamic banks. (1) The Zmijewski model analyzes five samples to be on the criteria of potentially bankrupt and six on the criteria of safe or healthy. (2) Grover's model analyzed 11 samples on safe or healthy criteria. (3) The Altman z-score Model Modification analyzes five samples on the safe or healthy criteria, five on the gray area criteria, and one on the potentially bankrupt criteria. The implication of this study is as a reference and information to stakeholders who focus on measuring the performance of Islamic companies and banks specifically. In addition, the novelty of this research is to compare the results of bankruptcy prediction models in Islamic banks that have never been done in the period 2018 to 2022.
Referencias
H. A. Almahadin, T. Kaddumi, and Q. AL-Kilani, “Banking soundnessfinancial stability nexus: Empirical evidence from Jordan,” Banks Bank Syst., vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 218–227, 2020, doi: 10.21511/bbs.15(3).2020.19.
M. A. H. Labetubun et al., Lembaga Keuangan Bank & Non Bank (Sebuah Tinjauan Teori dan Praktis). Bandung: Widina Bhakti Persada Bandung, 2021.
N. Nasfi et al., UANG DAN PERBANKAN. Bandung: CV WIDINA MEDIA UTAMA, 2022.
R. Ginevičius and A. Podviezko, “The Evaluation of Financial Stability and Soundness of Lithuanian Banks,” Ekon. Istraz., vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 191–208, 2013, doi: 10.1080/1331677X.2013.11517616.
S. Y. Anita et al., Manajemen Risiko, Pertama. Sumatera Barat: PT GLOBAL EKSEKUTIF TEKNOLOGI, 2023.
Q. Li, “The Impact of Liquidity Risk of Commercial Banks on Systematic Risk of Banking Industry: Study of 16 Listed Commercial Banks,” Mod. Econ., vol. 10, no. 03, pp. 645–665, 2019, doi: 10.4236/me.2019.103044.
Y. Tan and C. Floros, “Risk, competition and efficiency in banking: Evidence from China,” Glob. Financ. J., vol. 35, no. December 2017, pp. 223–236, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.gfj.2017.12.001.
T. C. Silva, M. A. da Silva, and B. M. Tabak, “Systemic risk in financial systems: A feedback approach,” J. Econ. Behav. Organ., vol. 144, pp. 97–120, 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2017.09.013.
L. Eisenberg and T. H. Noe, “Systemic Risk in Financial Systems,” Manage. Sci., vol. 47, no. 2, pp. 236–249, 2001.
L. Nugroho, A. Badawi, and N. Hidayah, “The Phenomenon of Saving Glut in the Banking Industry during the Covid-19 Pandemic,” Profita Komun. Ilm. Akunt. dan Perpajak., vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 1–15, 2021.
G. Gorton and L. Huang, “Bank panics and the endogeneity of central banking,” J. Monet. Econ., vol. 53, no. 7, pp. 1613–1629, 2006, doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.05.015.
I. Horgan, K. Ahsan, and S. Miah, “The Importance of Attributional Trust to Corporate Reputation,” J. Relatsh. Mark., vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 109–134, 2016, doi: 10.1080/15332667.2016.1209045.
G. Kim, B. Shin, and H. G. Lee, “Understanding dynamics between initial trust and usage intentions of mobile banking,” Inf. Syst. J., vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 283–311, 2009, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2575.2007.00269.x.
L. Nugroho, “Pandemi Covid-19 dan Keberlangsungan Industri Perbankan,” in Gotong Royong Menghadapi Covid-19 Ide dan Solusi, Jawa Timur: CV. Penerbit Qiara Media, 2020, pp. 8–16.
P. Muniarty et al., Manajemen Perbankan. Widina Bhakti Persada Bandung, 2020.
L. Nugroho and T. Mariyanti, “Discourses of Islamic Performance Ratio Based on Tawhid String Relationship,” J. Islam. Econ. Soc. Sci., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 44–52, 2021.
L. Nugroho, A. A. Mastur, Harnovinsah, and W. Aryanti, “The Contribution of Islamic Bank in Poverty Alleviation,” Al-ahkam J. Pemikir. Huk. Islam, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 19–38, 2020.
D. Masyita, “Why do people see a financial system as a whole very important?,” J. Islam. Monet. Econ. Financ., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 79–106, 2015.
M. Hanif, “Islamic mortgages: principles and practice,” Int. J. Emerg. Mark., vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 967–987, 2019, doi: 10.1108/IJOEM-02-2018-0088.
N. Ihwanudin et al., Pengantar Perbankan Syariah (Konsep, Regulasi & Praktis). Widina Bhakti Persada Bandung, 2020.
L. Nugroho et al., Pengantar Perbankan Syariah. Bandung: Widina Bhakti Persada Bandung, 2020.
B. Karyanto et al., Pengantar Ekonomi Syariah. Bandung: Widina Bhakti Persada Bandung, 2021.
L. Nugroho, T. Mariyanti, R. Ismal, and A. A. Mahfudz, “Determinants of Islamic Performance Ratio in Islamic Banks with Return on Assets as Moderating Factor,” Int. J. Commer. Financ., vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 21–56, 2022.
L. Nugroho, W. Utami, C. Sukmadilaga, and T. Fitrijanti, “The Urgency of Allignment Islamic Bank to Increasing the Outreach,” Int. J. Econ. Financ. Issues, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 283–291, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/4493/pdf.
L. Nugroho, “Reshaping the Mindset of Halal Entrepreneurs Toward Sustainable Business: The Case of Indonesia,” in Contemporary Discourse of Halal and Islamic Entrepreneurship, Springer, 2023, pp. 207–221.
H. Lebdaoui and J. Wild, “Islamic banking presence and economic growth in Southeast Asia,” Int. J. Islam. Middle East. Financ. Manag., vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 551–569, 2016, doi: 10.1108/IMEFM-03-2015-0037.
N. H. Farras and D. Darwanto, “Analysis of the Influence of Sharia Financial Sector on Indonesian National Income 2011-2020,” J. Ekon. Syariah Teor. dan Terap., vol. 8, no. 5, p. 630, 2021, doi: 10.20473/vol8iss20215pp630-640.
N. S. Simamora and I. Fahmi, “Bank Syariah Mandiri Dipimpin Dirut Baru, Siap Atasi NPF,” finansial.bisnis.com, 2014. https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20140514/232/227927/bank-syariah-mandiri-dipimpin-dirut-baru-siap-atasi-npf.
L. M. S. Sitanggang and R. Caturini, “Bank Muamalat tutup sembilan KCP di Sumut,” keuangan.kontan.co.id, 2016. https://keuangan.kontan.co.id/news/bank-muamalat-tutup-sembilan-kcp-di-sumut.
R. Nisaputra, “Kapok Terjerat Pembiayaan Bermasalah, Bank Muamalat pilih ‘Main Aman,’” Infobanknews.com, 2022. https://infobanknews.com/kapok-terjerat-pembiayaan-bermasalah-bank-muamalat-pilih-main-aman/.
W. Utami, L. Nugroho, R. Mappanyuki, and V. Yelvionita, “Early Warning Fraud Determinants In Banking Industries,” Asian Econ. Financ. Rev., vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 604–627, 2020, doi: 10.18488/journal.aefr.2020.106.604.627.
M. Mehreen, M. Marimuthu, S. A. A. Karim, and A. Jan, “Proposing a multidimensional bankruptcy prediction model: An approach for sustainable Islamic banking,” Sustain., vol. 12, no. 8, 2020, doi: 10.3390/SU12083226.
M. A. Ledhem, “Data mining techniques for predicting the financial performance of Islamic banking in Indonesia,” J. Model. Manag., vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 896–915, 2022, doi: 10.1108/JM2-10-2020-0286.
M. J. Reza, G. Pagalung, and R. A. Damayanti, “Bankruptcy Prediction With the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover Models,” Contemp. J. Bus. Account., vol. 3, no. 02, pp. 118–135, 2023, doi: 10.58792/cjba.v3i02.40.
P. N. Stepani and L. Nugroho, “Pengaruh Profitabilitas , Likuiditas , Leverage , dan Ukuran Perusahaan Terhadap Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Consumer Non-Cyclicals yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2019-2021,” J. Trends Econ. Account. Res., vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 194–205, 2023, doi: 10.47065/jtear.v3i3.551.
W. J. Ferrier, C. Mac Fhionnlaoich, K. G. Smith, and C. M.Grimm, “The impact of performance distress on aggressive competitive behavior: A reconciliation of conflicting views,” Manag. Decis. Econ., vol. 23, no. 4–5, pp. 301–316, 2002, [Online]. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2012.05.050.
T. Miller and M. del C. Triana, “Demographic Diversity in the Boardroom : Mediators of the Board Diversity – Firm Performance Relationship,” J. Manag. Stud., vol. 46, no. 5, pp. 755–786, 2009.
Z. Puspitaningtyas, “Empirical evidence of market reactions based on signaling theory in Indonesia Stock Exchange,” Invest. Manag. Financ. Innov., vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 66–77, 2019, doi: 10.21511/imfi.16(2).2019.06.
W. Su, M. W. Peng, W. Tan, and Y.-L. Cheung, “The Signaling Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility in Emerging Economies,” J. Bus. Ethics, vol. 134, no. 3, pp. 479–491, 2016, doi: 10.1007/s10551-014-2404-4.
V. G. Cenciarelli, G. Greco, and M. Allegrini, “External audit and bankruptcy prediction,” J. Manag. Gov., vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 863–890, 2018, doi: 10.1007/s10997-018-9406-z.
G. Giannopoulos and S. Sigbjørnsen, “Prediction of Bankruptcy Using Financial Ratios in the Greek Market,” Theor. Econ. Lett., vol. 09, no. 04, pp. 1114–1128, 2019, doi: 10.4236/tel.2019.94072.
R. E. Freeman, A. C. Wicks, and B. Parmar, “Stakeholder Theory and ‘The Corporate Objective Revisited,’” Organ. Sci., vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 364–369, 2004, doi: 10.1287/orsc.1040.0067.
H. Jiang, Y. Cheng, K. Park, and W. Zhu, “Linking CSR Communication to Corporate Reputation: Understanding Hypocrisy, Employees Social Media Engagement and CSR‐Related Work Engagement,” Sustain., vol. 14, no. 4, 2022, doi: 10.3390/su14042359.
L. Nugroho, S. Nurrohmah, and L. Anasta, “Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Opini Audit Going Concern,” J. SIKAP (Sistem Informasi, Keuangan, Audit. Dan Perpajakan), vol. 2, no. 2, p. 96, 2018, doi: 10.32897/jsikap.v2i2.79.
W. Utami and L. Nugroho, “Going Concern Studies of Government Social Enterprise in Indonesia Going Concern Studies of Government Social Enterprise in Indonesia (Village Government Enterprises Case/Bumdes-Lebak Region, West Java Province-Indonesia),” Int. J. Entrep. Manag. Inq., vol. 3, no. 5, pp. 191–206, 2019, Accessed: May 24, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338215781.
I. Alexeyeva and S. Sundgren, “Do going concern disclosures in the management report and audit report signal bankruptcy risk? Evidence from privately held firms,” Int. J. Audit., vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 171–192, 2022, doi: 10.1111/ijau.12257.
W. Beaver, M. McNichols, and J. W. Rhie, “Have financial statements become less informative? Evidence from the ability of financial ratios to predict bankruptcy,” Rev. Account. Stud., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 93–122, 2005, doi: 10.1007/s11142-004-6341-9.
T. Le, M. T. Vo, B. Vo, M. Y. Lee, and S. W. Baik, “A Hybrid Approach Using Oversampling Technique and Cost-Sensitive Learning for Bankruptcy Prediction,” Complexity, pp. 1–12, 2019, doi: 10.1155/2019/8460934.
M. Salehi and M. Davoudi Pour, “Bankruptcy prediction of listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange,” Int. J. Law Manag., vol. 58, no. 5, pp. 545–561, 2016, doi: 10.1108/IJLMA-05-2015-0023.
H. Nishi and S. D. Peabody, “The information content of stock prices after bankruptcy: Does volatility affect the probability of successful emergence?,” Manag. Financ., vol. 45, no. 9, pp. 1166–1182, 2019, doi: 10.1108/MF-01-2019-0005.
L. Oktris, D. Tarmidi, L. Nugroho, L. Anasta, and A. Fadjareni, Tips & Trik Cara Praktis Menyusun Skripsi dan Tesis, Pertama. Yogyakarta: Pustaka Pranala, 2022.
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Altmetrics
Descargas
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2024 AiBi Revista de Investigación, Administración e Ingeniería
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
La revista ofrece acceso abierto bajo una Licencia Creative Commons Attibution License
Esta obra está bajo una licencia Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0).